January 2019 Market Update

Greater Phoenix Buyer Contracts Down 15%

It’s Still a Good Time to Sell . . . For Now

January 2019 market update

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For Buyers:

The monthly average interest rate rose to 4.64% in December 2018, up 0.69% from the previous December’s 3.95%. For buyers who will purchase at the current median sales price of $260,000, that equates to approximately $100 added to their monthly payment compared to last year. Buyers averaged 1,845 square feet at this price; nearly 100 square feet smaller than if they had purchased last year. It doesn’t help matters by renting either. As single family homes appreciated 8.1% per square foot, single family lease payments also rose 8.6% during the same time frame. With that, buying is still a good option over renting if only to stabilize one’s monthly housing expense. Sale prices will continue rising in the first half of 2019, but at a slower rate and they’re not expected to decline at this juncture. Instead, buyers may see a little more flexibility from sellers in the form of repairs, closing costs, and possibly interest rate buy-downs in the higher price ranges.

For Sellers:

The market continues to favor sellers entering into 2019, but not nearly as much as it did at the beginning of 2018. Supply is still 34% below normal compared to 36% below normal this time last year. It’s buyer demand that has shifted as buyers grapple with affordability and concerns about an overvalued market. Demand at this time last year was measured 1% above normal; today it’s 13% below normal. While it may feel like a buyers market compared to the last four years, it is far from one. Greater Phoenix is still in a seller’s market, however it’s weaker out of the gate. This means there is still more demand than supply, but multiple offers will not be as common, there will be fewer sales overall and scenarios will vary widely depending on price range. Demand could change in either direction depending on interest rates, however for the time being buyers and sellers have to play the hand they’ve been dealt.  For those wondering if it’s still a good time to sell, the answer is “yes” for now.

Contact the real estate experts at NextHome Valleywide in Chandler, AZ at 480-621-6828 for more information.  If you are currently looking to Buy or Sell a home in the Phoenix metro , Scottsdale or East Valley area and are not sure where to turn we can help! Search for homes at ChandlerAreaHomeSearch.com where you can find single family homes, golf and lakefront properties, 55+ communities, townhomes and much more. Visit our blog at NextHome Valleywide for a monthly Phoenix Market Update.

December 2018 Market Update

Greater Phoenix Demand Down 16% in Q4
Seasonal Calm Before the Storm for Buyer Activity

December 2018 Market Update

For Buyers:

Remember when you wouldn’t eat your dinner as a kid and your parents would serve it to you for breakfast or lunch until it was gone? Okay even if you can’t relate, you can imagine a kid’s disappointment in having to see the same thing day after day until they reluctantly eat it. Buyers may be feeling the same way this month as existing inventory has gotten stale and very little new inventory has been added in the first weeks of December. It’s down a whopping 26% from last December with nearly every price range under $1.5M participating in the decline. This reluctance to list in December has offset the 16% decline in listings under contract and the market has managed to maintain a seller market, albeit a weaker one. In the mean-time, existing sellers are dressing up their leftovers with incentives. Seller assisted closing costs have risen on sales between $175K-$300K and price reductions were up 25% in the first week of December compared to last year.

For Sellers:

Seasonally, this is the calm before the storm in terms of buyer activity. Every year, listings under contract drop sharply in the latter half of December before reaching their lowest point on January 1st. Conversely, between January and April buyer contract activity will sharply accelerate. How much it will increase this year remains to be seen depending on interest rates and other lending factors. The past 3 years has seen contracts rise roughly between 70-90% in the first 4 months. Despite this expectation, sellers need to be prepared to compete more in 2019 than they had to this year. The first 4 months are also typically strong for new listings to enter the market. Even though 2019 looks like it will start off with a seller’s advantage, it will be much weaker than last year. The market appears to be resisting higher prices for homes that don’t live up to buyers’ expectation of value for their money.

Contact the real estate experts at NextHome Valleywide in Chandler, AZ at 480-621-6828 for more information.  If you are currently looking to Buy or Sell a home in the Phoenix metro , Scottsdale or East Valley area and are not sure where to turn we can help! Search for homes at ChandlerAreaHomeSearch.com where you can find single family homes, golf and lakefront properties, 55+ communities, townhomes and much more. Visit our blog at NextHome Valleywide for a monthly Phoenix Market Update.

‘Tis the Season For Real Estate?

Tis the Season for real estate

‘Tis the season for real estate?  It’s a common misconception that you shouldn’t try to buy or sell a home during the fall and winter months.

This is generally considered the “offseason” in real estate. Many sellers mistakenly believe that the cold weather will keep buyers away and that no one is looking over the holidays. Unfortunately, many real estate professionals perpetuate this myth by advising their clients to “wait until the spring” to list their home.

The truth is, homes are bought and sold year round. And while the market is typically quieter during the fall and winter, savvy buyers and sellers know how to use this slow down to their advantage. In fact, depending on your circumstances, now may be the ideal time for you to purchase or list a home.

If you’re in the market to buy or sell, there’s no need to wait for the spring. Read on to discover the top five reasons that it can pay to buy or sell a home during the offseason!

LESS COMPETITION

What’s the number one reason to buy or sell a home during the offseason? Less competition!

This can be particularly beneficial if you’re a seller. Come spring, a huge wave of new listings will hit the market. But if you list now, you will have fewer comparable homes with which to compete.

In the spring and summer months, it can be difficult for your property to stand out in a crowded market. You may end up with a surplus of homes for sale in your neighborhood. Indeed, it’s not uncommon to see multiple listings on a single street during the peak selling season.

Inventory in the fall and winter months, however, can be significantly lower. That means your home will not only receive more attention from buyers, but you may also gain the upper hand in your negotiations. In fact, research found that homes listed in the winter are nine percent more likely to sell, and sellers net more above asking price in the winter than any other time of year.1

Buyers also have a lot to love about the real estate offseason. While some buyers need to move during the winter, many bargain hunters search this time of year in hopes of scoring a great deal.

Smart buyers will continue to scan the market during the fall and winter for hidden gems that pop up during the offseason. There are always highly motivated sellers who need to sell quickly. And with less competition to bid against you, you’re in a better position to negotiate a great price. If you’ve been looking for a good deal on a home or investment property, now may be the best time to look!

So while a “slow market” may scare off some buyers and sellers, it can actually be the perfect time of year for you to list or purchase a home. While the rest of the market is hibernating until spring, take advantage of this opportunity to get a jump start on your competition!

EVERYONE’S MORE MOTIVATED

During the spring and summer, you’re likely to encounter “lookie-loo” buyers who are just testing the waters and unrealistic sellers who are holding out for a better offer. But the serious buyers and sellers stay active during the cold weather and holiday season, often because they need to move quickly. In fact, research shows that homes listed in the winter sell faster than any other time of year.1

January and February are peak job hiring months, which brings a surge of buyers who need to relocate quickly to start a new job.2 And of course life changes like retirement, marriage, divorce, and new babies come year round. While families often find it more convenient to move during the summer when school is out, the reality is that many don’t have the option to wait. According to the National Association of Realtors, 55 percent of all buyers purchased their home at the time they did because “it was just the right time,” not because of seasonal factors.3

If you prefer to deal with serious, highly-motivated buyers and sellers who want to act fast and don’t want to waste your time, then the offseason may be the perfect real estate season for you.

GREATER PERSONAL ATTENTION

Another key benefit to buying and selling in the offseason is the increased personal attention you’ll receive.

While we strive to provide unparalleled client service throughout the year, we simply have more time available for each individual client during slower periods. Similarly, we find the other real estate professionals in our network—including title agents, inspectors, appraisers, insurance agents, and loan officers—are able to respond faster and provide more time and attention during the offseason than they are during the busy spring and summer months. The result is a quicker and more streamlined closing process for all involved.

COST SAVINGS

Clients who move during the offseason often report significant cost savings. Moving costs may be discounted by 15 percent or more during the winter months, and moving companies can typically offer more flexibility in their scheduling.4

Home renovations and repairs can also be less expensive in the offseason.5 Whether you’re fixing up your property prior to listing it or remodeling your new home before moving in, contractors and service providers who are hungry for business are often willing to work for a discount this time of year. If you wait until the spring and summer, you may be forced to pay a premium.

Home stagers and decorators are also more likely to negotiate their fees during the winter. And you can often score great deals on new furniture and decor during the holiday sales.

Whether you’re buying or selling, count cost savings as another compelling reason to consider an offseason move.

EASIER TO MAINTAIN CURB APPEAL

Finally, listing your home during the fall and winter offers one key—but often overlooked—advantage: less lawn maintenance!

Good curb appeal is crucial when selling your home. According to a recent report by the National Association of Realtors, 44 percent of home buyers drove by a property after viewing it online but did NOT go inside for a walkthrough.6 That means if your curb appeal is lacking, buyers may never make it through the door.

If you list your home during the peak of the selling season, we will generally advise you to implement a frequent schedule of mowing, edging, watering, weeding, and trimming shrubs and hedges. You’ll probably want to plant flowers, as well, to brighten your exterior. After all, a lush landscape is a key element in attracting spring and summer buyers.

If you list in the offseason, however, your lawn maintenance list is significantly reduced. While we do recommend that our sellers keep their exterior clean, tidy, and free of leaves, snow, and ice, you will probably spend much less time on outdoor maintenance during the winter than you would if you listed your home in the summer.

ARE YOU READY TO MAKE YOUR MOVE?

Now that you know all the great reasons to buy or sell a home in the offseason, it’s time to decide whether you’re ready to make your move.

Every client’s circumstances are unique. Whether you need to move quickly or you simply want to take advantages of all benefits this season has to offer, it’s a great time to enter the market.

Give us a call today to schedule a FREE consultation … and you could be ringing in the New Year in your new home!

Sources:

  1. Redfin – https://www.redfin.com/blog/2013/12/why-winter-is-the-hottest-time-to-sell-your-home.html#.VjKYm2SrTKI
  2. Top Resume – https://www.topresume.com/career-advice/the-best-times-of-the-year-to-job-search
  3. National Association of Realtors – https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/highlights-from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers
  4. Angie’s List –https://www.angieslist.com/articles/why-winter-can-be-best-time-move.htm
  5. Build Direct –https://www.builddirect.com/blog/the-best-times-of-the-year-to-get-deals-on-home-remodels/
  6. National Association of Realtors –https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/reports/2017/2017-home-buyer-and-seller-generational-trends-03-07-2017.pdf

November Market Update 2018

New Listings Up 18% between $250-400K
Q4 is Seasonally Best Time to Buy

November Market Update 2018

For Buyers:

Seasonally the 4th Quarter is the best time to be a buyer and this year is no exception. Typically buyer contract activity is at its strongest from March through May and weakest between November and January. Buyers who were out-bid by competing offers last Spring will have a different experience now. October saw 18% more new listings hit the market between $250K- $400K compared to last October while buyer contracts are about the same within the same price range. There was only a 1% increase in new listings in the lower price range between $200K-$250K but a 12% drop in buyer contracts which caused overall supply to rise another 11%. The market is still a seller’s market, but more seller competition for fewer buyers translates into more price reductions and seller concessions until the Spring “Buyer Season” is up- on us once again.

For Sellers:

The market may be softening between $200K-$400K (which accounts for over 56% of MLS sales), but that doesn’t mean sellers are getting a raw deal. Monthly average sale prices per square foot in this price range have appreciated 5% since October last year and nearly 19% in last 5 years. Under $200K, the appreciation rate is 9.5% in the past year and 44% in 5 years. $400K-$800K has appreciated 6% in the last year and 14% in 5 years and the annual average sale price per square foot* over $800K has appreciated 3% in the last year and 10.5% in 5 years. What’s happening underneath that contract price, however, is an increased cost to sell at “top dollar”. That cost can take the shape of longer days on market with multiple price reductions, repairs, needed upgrades to the home prior to list and closing cost assistance.

Contact the real estate experts at NextHome Valleywide in Chandler, AZ at 480-621-6828 for more information.  If you are currently looking at buying or selling a home in the Phoenix, Scottsdale or East Valley area and are not sure where to turn, search for homes at ChandlerAreaHomeSearch.comwhere you can find single family homes, golf and lakefront properties, 55+ communities, townhomes and much more. Visit our blog at NextHome Valleywide for a monthly Phoenix Market Update.

October Market Update 2018

Seller Concessions Spike on Listings Sold Between $200K-$250K
Price Reductions up 27% on Active Listings Between $250K-$400K

October Market Update

For Buyers:

October marks the 4th month in a row that supply has continued to rise between $200K – $400K, which is good news for many buyers as it provides them with more choice and fewer competing offers. However, for those buyers with budgets under $200K, this trend in supply doesn’t apply to them and their choices are still extremely limited. Last January, inventory under $200K made up 18% of all active listings.  Within that price range, single family homes made up 50%, condos and townhomes 30%, and mobile homes 20%. As of this month, inventory under $200K only makes up 12% of actives and has declined 36% since January. Single family homes make up 45%, condos and townhomes 36%, and mobile homes 19%. This drop in supply equates to 591 fewer single family homes, 198 fewer condos and townhomes, and 229 fewer mobile homes available for sale under $200K since the beginning of 2018.

For Sellers:

When supply rises, sellers react in a number of ways to compete with one another for the existing buyer pool. One option is a price reduction on their active listing prior to contract. This does not necessarily result in a decline in sale price, only a decline in sellers’ expectations for appreciation. Sales price trends may still continue to rise, but perhaps only at 5% instead of 8%, for example. Another option is to agree to a concession, such as paying a portion of closing costs or a home warranty; and finally to agree to a much lower sale price than what they were asking. Typically sellers agree to the first two options before submitting to a “low ball” contract, which is why sales price trends are the last measures to respond to a shift in supply and demand.  With that being said, weekly price reductions this month between $250K$400K are up 27% compared to last year, while price reductions between $200K-$250K are only up 1.7%.  However, seller concessions on sales between $200K-$250K reached 41% so far this month compared to last quarter’s measure of 36%.  Only 21% of sales between $250K$400K recorded a seller concession.  Which leads us to conclude that sellers below $250K are agreeing to more concessions than price reductions; while sellers over $250K are submitting to more price reductions. Despite this slight weakening in sellers’ advantage, Greater Phoenix is not close to a balanced or buyer’s market so expect overall prices to continue rising over the next 3-6 months.

Contact the real estate experts at NextHome Valleywide in Chandler, AZ at 480-621-6828 for more information.  If you are currently looking at buying or selling a home in the Phoenix, Scottsdale or East Valley area and are not sure where to turn, search for homes at ChandlerAreaHomeSearch.comwhere you can find single family homes, golf and lakefront properties, 55+ communities, townhomes and much more. Visit our blog at NextHome Valleywide for a monthly Phoenix Market Update.