November Market Update 2018

New Listings Up 18% between $250-400K
Q4 is Seasonally Best Time to Buy

November Market Update 2018

For Buyers:

Seasonally the 4th Quarter is the best time to be a buyer and this year is no exception. Typically buyer contract activity is at its strongest from March through May and weakest between November and January. Buyers who were out-bid by competing offers last Spring will have a different experience now. October saw 18% more new listings hit the market between $250K- $400K compared to last October while buyer contracts are about the same within the same price range. There was only a 1% increase in new listings in the lower price range between $200K-$250K but a 12% drop in buyer contracts which caused overall supply to rise another 11%. The market is still a seller’s market, but more seller competition for fewer buyers translates into more price reductions and seller concessions until the Spring “Buyer Season” is up- on us once again.

For Sellers:

The market may be softening between $200K-$400K (which accounts for over 56% of MLS sales), but that doesn’t mean sellers are getting a raw deal. Monthly average sale prices per square foot in this price range have appreciated 5% since October last year and nearly 19% in last 5 years. Under $200K, the appreciation rate is 9.5% in the past year and 44% in 5 years. $400K-$800K has appreciated 6% in the last year and 14% in 5 years and the annual average sale price per square foot* over $800K has appreciated 3% in the last year and 10.5% in 5 years. What’s happening underneath that contract price, however, is an increased cost to sell at “top dollar”. That cost can take the shape of longer days on market with multiple price reductions, repairs, needed upgrades to the home prior to list and closing cost assistance.

Contact the real estate experts at NextHome Valleywide in Chandler, AZ at 480-621-6828 for more information.  If you are currently looking at buying or selling a home in the Phoenix, Scottsdale or East Valley area and are not sure where to turn, search for homes at ChandlerAreaHomeSearch.comwhere you can find single family homes, golf and lakefront properties, 55+ communities, townhomes and much more. Visit our blog at NextHome Valleywide for a monthly Phoenix Market Update.

October Market Update 2018

Seller Concessions Spike on Listings Sold Between $200K-$250K
Price Reductions up 27% on Active Listings Between $250K-$400K

October Market Update

For Buyers:

October marks the 4th month in a row that supply has continued to rise between $200K – $400K, which is good news for many buyers as it provides them with more choice and fewer competing offers. However, for those buyers with budgets under $200K, this trend in supply doesn’t apply to them and their choices are still extremely limited. Last January, inventory under $200K made up 18% of all active listings.  Within that price range, single family homes made up 50%, condos and townhomes 30%, and mobile homes 20%. As of this month, inventory under $200K only makes up 12% of actives and has declined 36% since January. Single family homes make up 45%, condos and townhomes 36%, and mobile homes 19%. This drop in supply equates to 591 fewer single family homes, 198 fewer condos and townhomes, and 229 fewer mobile homes available for sale under $200K since the beginning of 2018.

For Sellers:

When supply rises, sellers react in a number of ways to compete with one another for the existing buyer pool. One option is a price reduction on their active listing prior to contract. This does not necessarily result in a decline in sale price, only a decline in sellers’ expectations for appreciation. Sales price trends may still continue to rise, but perhaps only at 5% instead of 8%, for example. Another option is to agree to a concession, such as paying a portion of closing costs or a home warranty; and finally to agree to a much lower sale price than what they were asking. Typically sellers agree to the first two options before submitting to a “low ball” contract, which is why sales price trends are the last measures to respond to a shift in supply and demand.  With that being said, weekly price reductions this month between $250K$400K are up 27% compared to last year, while price reductions between $200K-$250K are only up 1.7%.  However, seller concessions on sales between $200K-$250K reached 41% so far this month compared to last quarter’s measure of 36%.  Only 21% of sales between $250K$400K recorded a seller concession.  Which leads us to conclude that sellers below $250K are agreeing to more concessions than price reductions; while sellers over $250K are submitting to more price reductions. Despite this slight weakening in sellers’ advantage, Greater Phoenix is not close to a balanced or buyer’s market so expect overall prices to continue rising over the next 3-6 months.

Contact the real estate experts at NextHome Valleywide in Chandler, AZ at 480-621-6828 for more information.  If you are currently looking at buying or selling a home in the Phoenix, Scottsdale or East Valley area and are not sure where to turn, search for homes at ChandlerAreaHomeSearch.comwhere you can find single family homes, golf and lakefront properties, 55+ communities, townhomes and much more. Visit our blog at NextHome Valleywide for a monthly Phoenix Market Update.

September Market Update 2018

September Market Update courtesy of Craig and Stacey Akers at NextHome Valleywide.  Contact 480-621-6828 or info@nexthomevalleywide.com for a Seller Solution book that will give you selling tips, pricing, and comparable home sales in your area.


Supply Continues to Rise in Middle

Overall Market Remains Sellers Market

September Market Update 2018

For Buyers:

Overall supply is down 9.6% compared to last September. At first glance that’s nothing new. However, for those of you who pay close attention to our monthly infographic (I know you’re out there), you have no doubt noticed that last May supply was down 15.5%, June supply was down 12.2%, July was down 11.1% and August was down 9.9% from last August. What this means for buyers is that the Greater Phoenix market is still in short supply, but it’s subtly becoming less bad. Most significantly, supply continues to increase between $200K-$400K. Last month we reported an 8.1% increase in listings between $200K-$250K since May, that is now 9.7%. Between $250K-$300K, supply has risen 15% in only 8 weeks. Between $300K-$400K, supply has slowly risen 10% since January. All other price ranges are either declining in supply or following their normal seasonal trends. This is great news for buyers; more choice in the marketplace means less negotiating pressure. However, don’t expect sale prices to plummet anytime soon. The first price to respond to a supply shift isn’t a sale price, it’s a list price in the form of a price reduction.

For Sellers:

Despite the increase in supply between $200K-$250K, there hasn’t been a correlating increase in weekly list price reductions from sellers yet. However that is not the case for the market between $250K-$300K where weekly list price reductions have risen 46% in the past 8 weeks and weekly reductions between $300K-$400K have risen 61% since January. This isn’t an indicator that sellers are becoming desperate. Make no mistake, there are very few desperate sellers in this marketplace. There are, however, many optimistic sellers who may be taming their expectations. Average annual price appreciation per square foot remains between 3.5% – 5.0% for sales between $200K-$400K, so it’s still a seller’s market despite recent developments. Expect prices to continue increasing at least through the remainder of 2018.

Contact the real estate experts at NextHome Valleywide in Chandler, AZ at 480-621-6828 for more information.  If you are currently looking at buying or selling a home in the Phoenix, Scottsdale or East Valley area and are not sure where to turn, search for homes at ChandlerAreaHomeSearch.comwhere you can find single family homes, golf and lakefront properties, 55+ communities, townhomes and much more. Visit our blog at NextHome Valleywide for a monthly Phoenix Market Update.

May Market Update 2018

May Market Update courtesy of Craig and Stacey Akers at NextHome Valleywide.  Contact 480-621-6828 or info@nexthomevalleywide.com for a Seller Solution book that will give you selling tips, pricing, and comparable home sales in your area.

Supply Between $175-200K Dropped 18%

Summer is Good Time to List Luxury Properties

 May Market Update

For Buyers:

Supply under $200K has continued to drop rapidly, but the $175K-$200K range has accelerated its decline over the past month far more dramatically than any other price range. After being consistently 30-35% below last year, the active supply level dropped a whopping 18% in a 3-week period putting the current count for this group 44% below last year. Single family homes only make up 41% of active listings under
$200K, but they account for 69% of actives between $175K-$200K. As more buyers are looking to condos and townhouses for affordable housing, supply for attached homes under $200K has dropped 33% over the last year. However, condo supply between $200K-$300K
has actually risen 10% while single family homes in the same price point have dropped 15%.

For Sellers:

We are officially at the peak of the market seasonally for listings in escrow. Over the next few weeks, especially as temperatures reach over 100 degrees in the Valley, ex- pect to see a gradual decline in buyer contracts that will continue through the end of the year. This is a seasonal trend that consistently happens every year and in every price point, even the frenzy market under $200K. The one exception is the luxury market over $500K.  While it’s typical to see a decline at the beginning of Summer like everyone else, escrow counts tend to drop for a couple months and then go flat until the end of the year. In fact, luxury supply drops more than buyer activity does in the Summer making it a great time to list luxury property for those willing to brave the heat between June and September.

Contact the real estate experts at NextHome Valleywide in Chandler, AZ at 480-621-6828 for more information.  If you are currently looking at buying or selling a home in the Phoenix, Scottsdale or East Valley area and are not sure where to turn, search for homes at ChandlerAreaHomeSearch.comwhere you can find single family homes, golf and lakefront properties, 55+ communities, townhomes and much more. Visit our blog at NextHome Valleywide for a monthly Phoenix Market Update.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

April Market Update 2018

April Market Update courtesy of Craig and Stacey Akers at NextHome Valleywide.  Contact 480-621-6828 or info@nexthomevalleywide.com for a Seller Solution book that will give you selling tips, pricing, and comparable home sales in your area.

MLS Sales Outperform non-MLS Sales in Frenzy Market

Supply Under $200K Down 36% Over Last Year

2018-04 Infographic

For Buyers:

Greater Phoenix ended the 1st Quarter 13% lower in supply, which was not helped by a 2% decline in new listings entering the market. All price ranges are below last year’s level of supply with the exception of the $1M+ market, which is up 1.5%. On the opposite end of the spectrum, supply under $200K is down 36% from last year and all prices in between are down 10%. Buyer competition is typically at it’s strongest at this time of year and is expected to begin tapering off seasonally in May or June.

For Sellers:

Despite the highly competitive, fast appreciating environment in the $100K-$200K market, more sellers decided not to list their home on the MLS and many chose to sell to an investor instead. This is ironic considering MLS sales in that price range sell for 12% more per square foot on average compared to normal non-MLS sales, which could equate to a $12,000-$22,000 gap. Additionally, the annual average sales price per square foot rose faster for MLS sales in this range at 7.9% while non-MLS sales rose only 6.0% over the last year.

Contact the real estate experts at NextHome Valleywide in Chandler, AZ at 480-621-6828 for more information.  If you are currently looking at buying or selling a home in the Phoenix, Scottsdale or East Valley area and are not sure where to turn, search for homes at ChandlerAreaHomeSearch.comwhere you can find single family homes, golf and lakefront properties, 55+ communities, townhomes and much more. Visit our blog at NextHome Valleywide for a monthly Phoenix Market Update.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC